Author: Kalesh Loakman LL.M
January 7, 2025
Following Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election, concerns have grown that the U.S. climate policy will undergo significant change during the Trump Administration. President-elect Trump stated during his campaign that the U.S. does not have “a global warming problem.” Equally concerning is how a U.S. exit from the Paris Agreement would impact climate crisis mitigation globally, especially for Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and other states which are susceptible to the detrimental effects of climate change.
This existing concern is one which is legitimately held given Trump’s track record with climate change. On June 1, 2017, then President Trump announced that he was withdrawing the U.S. from the Paris Climate Agreement. On November 4, 2020, the U.S. became the first state (and only state to date) which has withdrawn from the Agreement, citing that it placed an unfair economic burden on the U.S. However, on the first day President Biden assumed office, he made the U.S. a party to the Paris Agreement once again. With a change of presidency once again, the U.S. climate policy will once again undergo another shift.
Role of U.S. in the Current Climate Crisis
The U.S. withdrawing from the Paris Agreement is more than just the withdrawal of one of the 195 countries that are part of the Agreement. There are a few countries that contribute more significantly to the global climate crisis than others, and the U.S. is no exception. The U.S. is one of the six biggest emitters of greenhouse gases that cause global warming. In fact, some sources say that the U.S. is the second largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world. To put things into global perspective, according to the United Nations Environmental Program’s 2024 report on global emissions, the six biggest emitters accounted for more than half of the total greenhouse gas emissions in 2023, while the 47 least developed countries in the world accounted for 3 percent of the global greenhouse gas emissions. A report also indicated that in 2022, total gross U.S. greenhouse gas emissions totaled to 6,343.2 million metric tons of carbon dioxide. Cumulatively, the U.S. has produced the most carbon dioxide emissions to date. President Biden also made an ambitious pledge to take U.S. emission to net-zero by 2050. The U.S.’s participation in global climate mitigation efforts is therefore critical. This leads to the next question: how does the U.S.’s potential exit from the Paris Agreement undermine climate mitigation efforts?
The Paris Agreement
Established under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the Paris Agreement, which was brought about in 2015, represents the first global binding agreement to combat climate change, adapt to the detrimental effects of climate change, and provide enhanced support to developing countries in their fight against climate change. As stated in Article 1 of the Agreement, in order to “strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change,” states commit to preventing an increase in global temperature “below 2⁰C above pre-industrial levels.” It also aims to create the ability of states “to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change and foster climate resilience,” and in light of different national circumstances, institute “common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities.”
One of the things which makes the Paris Agreement effective in the global climate crisis mitigation fight is that it relies heavily on states’ willing participation. Under Articles 3 and 4 of the Agreement, states are mandated to set nationally determined contributions (NDCs), or national climate action plans, which may include domestic mitigation measures with the aim of achieving reduced greenhouse gas emissions. If states, including large emitters of greenhouse gases like the U.S., do not implement policies and plans to cut down greenhouse gases being released into the atmosphere, the effects of climate change will worsen. Under the agreement, states are given the freedom to decide what steps to implement and how their action plans are designed. In its most recent NDC report, the U.S. set an “economy wide target of reducing its net greenhouse gas emissions by 50-52 percent below 2005 levels in 2030.” Since, on a matter of scale, the U.S. is regarded as one of the top three emitters of climate-altering greenhouse gases, the climate mitigation fight will undoubtedly be set back.
Climate finance
Another integral aspect of the Paris Agreement geared towards ensuring a global combat against climate change relates to finance. In fact, this was one of the key features which set the Paris Agreement apart from prior climate agreements. Article 4 of the Paris agreement explicitly mentions that “support shall be provided to developing country parties” by developed countries in mitigating as well as adapting to the effects of climate change. Adaptation is by no means cheap, and financial means therefore become obstacles in realizing this end in countries which contributed to the climate crisis the least. According to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in a 2020 report on adaptation costs, “Annual adaptation costs in developing countries alone are estimated at USD 70 billion currently. This figure is expected to reach USD 140-300 billion in 2030 and USD 280-500 billion in 2050.” Resource constrained SIDS rely heavily on global funding to protect themselves from the effects of climate change.
A potential U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement could mean that the already under-funded climate initiatives will suffer additional setbacks. Every country’s participation in the Paris Agreement is needed, especially after the recently concluded Conference of Parties (COP 29), where countries agreed to triple climate finance “from the previous goal of USD 100 billion annually, to USD 300 billion annually by 2035.” However, the previous goal, which was only a fraction of the new goal, was achieved in 2022 for the first time, two years past its deadline. A major focal point for the Biden Administration was scaling up climate finance. It is likely that strides made in that direction will be undone, as the U.S.’s climate policy undergoes a radical shift.
Call for Accountability
The newly elected U.S. government is therefore called upon to acknowledge the detrimental effects of climate change. More importantly, the newly elected U.S. is called upon to ensure that the U.S. plays its just part in combating the global climate crisis.
Glossary
Climate crisis: refers to the devastating effects of global warming and climate change on humans and the environment.
Climate policy: refers to a set of actions that will be taken by a government or country to reduce, adapt and/or eliminate climate change.
Emitter: in the climate change context, this refers to any source/ country responsible for the release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.
Greenhouse gases: refers to gases which trap heat in the atmosphere which cause global warming.
Net-zero: refers to the balance in the atmosphere where the amount of greenhouse gases that are being produced is equal to the amount of greenhouse gases that are being absorbed.
Small Island Developing States (SIDS): these are the countries or states which have been identified as the least contributing to global warming and at the same time will be most vulnerable to the effects of climate change.