Natural Disasters & People Protection: An Early Warning from an International Law Perspective

Author: Àlex Peralta Martínez, LLM

April 9, 2025

[Image credit: KMC/Getty Images]

Natural disasters: the new normal?

With the global increase in incidences of wildfires, droughts and floods, tsunamis, hurricanes and earthquakes, it is evident that the international community can no longer ignore the adverse impacts of climate change. In the last decade, the world has witnessed a substantial increase in natural disasters.  For instance, according to the International Disaster Database of the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, disaster events have increased from 100 per year in the 1970 to around 400 events per year worldwide in the past 20 years.” This means since the year 2000, the amount of natural disaster events have been around 400. Depending on the intensity of the event, it can cause major economic damages of at least US$320 million, according to this study.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a United Nations scientific group, determined in their last report that "it is an established fact that human-induced greenhouse gas emissions have led to an increased frequency and/or intensity of some weather and climate extremes since pre-industrial time". And it will become more frequent and intense. In other words, many human activities (like transport, agriculture, technology, etc.) use materials that generate greenhouse gas emissions. According to the IPCC, those emissions are linked to an increase of some natural disaster events since the 1970’s.

The World Meteorological Organization and the World Weather Attribution (WWA) recommend early warning systems as a measure to reduce the impact of extreme weather events. This includes early warning systems, like a notification of the incoming disaster. Specifically, the WWA 2024 report highlights these warnings given to the population “need to be targeted, given days ahead of a dangerous weather event". Also, the states need to "outline clear instructions on what people need to do". For instance, to go inside and shut all windows and doors if the citizens hear an emergency siren.

The Dana flooding Valencia

One of the heavy precipitations in 2024 occurred in Valencia, Spain. On October 29th, the country, Europe and the world witnessed "the Dana", the most significant flood in Valencia since 1987. AEMET, the state’s meteorological agency, gathered the following data: On October 29th, in 24 hours, it rained a total of 771 l/m2 of water in Turis, the most affected area within the province. Chiva-La Pailla and Buñol followed Turis as the second and third most-affected areas, with a registration of 615l/m2 and 447l/m2 of water precipitation, respectively.

The flood and storm lasted until November 4th, destroying houses, bridges, and avenues, damaging around 2.500 hectares of agriculture and ecosystems, including the natural park of Albufera. Sadly, 223 people were killed by the torrential rainfalls, with many of those victims found on the road, coming back from work. 

The AEMET emitted several alerts in October 28th, the day before the storm hit Valencia. 

In October 29th early afternoon, the President of the community of Valencia, Carlos Mazón, issued a statement affirming the incoming storm would be less intense than expected. This contradicted the national weather forecast AEMET warnings. At 20:11 (8:11 PM), Valencian citizens were notified about the incoming heavy precipitations. However, the storm had started two hours before that, so unfortunately, their homes were, at that point, already flooded.

At present, there is an ongoing judicial investigation regarding the management of the Dan. Several citizens’ associations have filed report against President Mazón for imprudence, failure to provide assistance and a crime against labor rights, amongst other allegations. However, does international law apply in this situation? Does the competent authority of the disaster-affected State have an obligation of early notification under international law? 

The fragmented international disaster law: the concept of a disaster

International disaster response law is the area of international law that encompasses the regulation of international disaster assistance. At the moment, there is a lack of alignment of the international disaster law. This is due to a lack of global consensus to prioritize the creation of an international framework for natural disasters until this date. Thus, bilateral and multilateral agreements between neighboring states form the basis of this area of international law. 

As a consequence of this lack of alignment, there are multiple legal definitions regarding the notion of disaster. Each treaty has its own legal terms. These definitions of what is a disaster can be grouped into two views: a disaster as the situation in itself, or what occurs in the aftermath of an extreme weather event. For example, the International Federation of Red Cross (IFRC) created the "Guidelines for the domestic facilitation and regulation of international disaster relief and initial recovery assistance". They include a definition that describes disaster as an event, following the first view. They are recommendations to help states better structure their domestic laws to eliminate hurdles and promote more coherent legislation.

These Guidelines have their international relevance, since they have been cited by the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in 22 resolutions and informed the substance of the International Law Commission (ILC) drafts. 

Are states obliged to notify of an incoming extreme weather event under international law?

The ILC recognizes the duty to prevent harm as a general principle of international law. Specifically, international human rights law determines the obligations to respect, fulfil and protect. The State has a duty to protect individuals from human rights violations.

Natural disaster prevention refers to the actions that occur before the extreme weather event strikes. They would include early warning mechanisms, a risk assessment, an alert notification, stockpiling of supplies and equipment, developing coordination mechanisms amongst local, regional and national emergency services and evacuations, to name a few.

Neglecting early warning measures, like in the case of flooding in Valencia, could violate the right to life of the citizens of the affected State. This right is anchored in all major global and regional human rights treaties. In the case of flooding in Valencia, since it is a city in Spain, the European Convention of Human Rights (ECHR) is the relevant binding treaty. Article 4 contemplates the right to life, and Article 8 discusses the right to private and family life. The European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) has a major role in determining the content of these rights.

The rights to life and private and family life: the ECtHR interpretation

The ECtHR determines a state must take appropriate steps to safeguard the lives of those within its jurisdiction. Thus, the right to life embodies an obligation to protect. The ECtHR, in the case of Osman v. the United Kingdom, also developed the Osman Test. This test helps clarify the existence of responsibility in case a state fails to prevent a violation of the right to life. 

The requirements for the Osman Test are (1) the existence of a risk to the right to life that is (2) real and (3) immediate, (4) concerns an identified individual or individuals and, finally, (5) where the State knew or should have known of this risk.

The court has established that natural disasters are part of the scope of application of this test. The reason behind it is natural disasters are risks not attributable to a specific actor, but it involves the conduct of a state. In other words, the natural disaster is not created by a concrete international agent, but states will act one way or another in response to the event.

Since its adoption in 1998, this test has been applied several times. In the context of natural disasters, the case of Budayeva and others v. Russia, the Court highlighted that Article 8 of the ECHR encompasses a positive obligation "to adequately inform the public about any life-threatening emergency". However, the case's specific circumstances need to be always considered.

Signaling the future: The resolution of the United Nations General Assembly

In parallel, as explained earlier, there is no international legal framework for disaster law. Currently, two major human rights instruments deal explicitly with disasters: the Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities and the African Union Convention for the Protection and Assistance of Internally Displaced Persons in Africa (Kampala Convention).

Nonetheless, on Wednesday, December 6th 2024, the UNGA set a milestone for the elaboration of a conclusion of an international treaty on the protection of persons in the event of disasters by the end of 2027 at the latest. This binding instrument will be based on the draft articles of the ILC adopted in 2016. For more information about the content of the ILC Draft Articles from 2016, consult this article.

The resolution was adopted by consensus, and states are invited to submit proposals for amendments to the Draft Articles by December 31st 2025. For more information on how and when this topic was introduced in the ILC agenda and the debates before the approval of the resolution, consult this article.

Final thoughts

Considering all the above, even though there is not a specific right to receive an early warning, it can be affirmed the obligation to an early alert exists due to the ECtHR's interpretation of Articles 4 and 8 of the ECHR. Moreover, at first glance, it seems the Valencian Government violated the right to life alongside private and family life for the victims of the floods. 

The Government did not inform the public in time of the incoming tempest, even though it had knowledge of the immediate danger. Only time will tell if the victims will press charges and claim responsibility. Who knows, in a few years, the case may arrive at the ECtHR, and we will get a more precise answer, considering all the circumstances surrounding the disaster.

Moreover, an international treaty that protects people in the event of disasters is vital and relevant in the current world context of climate change and rising temperatures. There is an urge to create a legal framework that responds to scientific data and prioritizes basic human rights threatened by natural disasters. An international legal framework would help prevent poor responses to catastrophes and guarantee national coordination and international cooperation in protecting civilians. Going forward, if states and society were more prepared, casualties like witnessed during the floods in Valencia could be less severe, and more lives would be saved.

---

Glossary

• Agriculture: The practice or work of farming.

• Allegations: A statement, made without giving proof, that someone has done something wrong or illegal.

• Attributable: Caused by.

• Bilateral and multilateral agreements: Agreements between two or more states, or between states and international organizations, or between two or more international organizations.

• Competent: able or allowed to make legal decisions.

• Dana: Isolated depression at high levels.

• Ecosystem: All living things in an area and the way they affect each other and the environment.

• Extreme weather: Bad weather that could cause harm or damage.

• European Convention on Human Rights: International convention to protect human rights and political freedoms in Europe.

• European Court of Human Rights: International court of the Council of Europe which interprets the European Convention on Human Rights.

• Greenhouse gas: A gas that causes the greenhouse effect, especially carbon dioxide.

• Hectare: A unit of measurement of an area of land (10.000 m2).

• Hurdle: A problem that you have to deal with before you can make progress.

• Imprudence: the quality of being unwise, because you fail to consider the possible results of your actions.

• Incidence: the rate at which something happens

• International Law Commission: Body of experts elected by the United Nations General Assembly responsible for helping develop and codify international law

• Judicial: relating to a judge or judges, to a law court, or to the justice system

• Jurisdiction: the authority of a court or official organization to make decisions and judgements

• Liability: The fact that someone is legally responsible for something

• Meteorological Agency: State agency of the Government of Spain responsible for providing weather forecast, warnings of hazardous weather and assisting the administrations in such matters.

• Tempest: a violent storm

• Torrential: used to refer to very heavy rain

• United Nations General Assembly: Main policy-making organ of the United Nations, comprising all Member States