Author: Dr. Richard Quinlan
July 25, 2024
Democracy is a fragile form of government, and it seems to currently have a tenuous existence in many nations around the world, including those that have long been democratic stalwarts. I believe that due to the wealth of natural resources, opportunities for economic progression, expansive youth population, and investment opportunities, the twenty-first century can and will belong to the continent of Africa. Despite my optimism, the reality in Africa is the ongoing struggle with the legacies of colonialism and the horrors of mass atrocities, wars, and genocides. A step towards liberating itself from the tragedies of the past is to conduct free and fair elections that will stabilize nations on the brink of suffering and demonstrate a commitment to democratic ideals. The counterpoint to this hopeful appeal for democracy is that many of these elections are and will be dominated by political leaders who silence—in varying forms—their opposition and the media. By using fiercely iron-fisted ruling styles, some elections are expressions of choice in name only and do not reflect a significant shift towards greater personal liberties; however, with increased transparency, abuses of power can be identified much more easily and made more apparent to the world. Several elections have already transpired and many more await over the final months of the year that will impact the immediate future of the continent. For Africa to become a collective force in global affairs, countries throughout the continent must eradicate political abuses and provide opportunities for citizens to vote freely and without fear of retribution. Merely placing a ballot in a box does not constitute democracy; only an election in which all voices are allowed to be heard and winners decided by an informed populace will pull African nations away from the repression of post-colonial subjugation.
Comoros
The small island nation of Comoros, located just to the northeast of Madagascar with a population of roughly 900,000 people, was the first nation to have a presidential election in January. The election was one of contention and violence, a sad component of the island’s history since becoming independent in 1975. The island has endured nearly two dozen attempted coups in its brief history, and the reelection of Azali Assoumani was met with protests that saw one person killed and dozens wounded. Assoumani dismantled the nation’s constitution in 2018 which had required a rotating presidential power sharing among the nation’s three islands—Grand Comore, Anjouan, and Moheli—as well as vice-presidents representing the three islands. Not only did Assoumani do away with the vice-presidents, but also changed the rotation from every five years to ten. Assoumani’s latest controversial decision was to name his 40-year-old son, Nour El Fath, as director of the country’s cabinet. Now beginning his fourth five-year term, Assoumani has solidified power within his family. He did away with the democratically elected Constitutional Court in 2018 and transferred all control over elections to the Supreme Court, whose members are selected by the president. Control of the courts by the Assoumani government means that the concerns of dissenters will not be heard, and his rule can continue unabated. Although Comoros is not a particularly large or wealthy nation, it is emblematic of the struggles for democratic reform seen in many African countries.
Mauritania
The nation of Mauritania is one of great political complexity. The nation has demonstrated aspects of greater openness and political freedoms including former President Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz following constitutional term limits and leaving office in 2019 marking the first peaceful transference of power in the history of the nation, but this has emerged slowly with the nation still listed as only “partly free” with a freedom score of 36/100 by Freedom House. Retired army general Mohamed Ould Ghazouani won his second term in a row, raising his support percentage from 52 to 56% in the most recent election. The elections in Mauritania took place without violence, but the nation is still plagued by corruption, including charges against former president Ould Abdel Aziz. Mauritania is a nation that can potentially continue down a path of progress, but there are still aspects of the nation’s political structure that are limiting the freedoms of the people. Mauritania does not allow freedom of expression, including laws that criminalize defamation, the dissemination of “false” information, cybercrime, and blasphemy, according to Freedom House. In the same report on the nation, journalists who write unfavorably about the government allegedly face harassment, wiretapping, and occasional arrest. Mauritania is a country at a crossroads; it stands to become one of the most viable economic powers in West Africa. According to Malinne Blomberg, writing for African Development Bank Group, “Mauritania is a treasure trove of untapped mineral wealth”. With plentiful natural resources, particularly iron ore, the nation has the potential to become a significant player on the world’s economic stage. The question for Mauritania is whether its repression of personal liberties will deter it from achieving the greatness it seeks.
Rwanda
I have written about Rwanda in the past and the remarkable progress the nation has made since the horrors of the 1994 genocide that saw the murder of roughly 800,000 people, largely Tutsi. The modernization and stabilization of Rwanda has been achieved under the rule of one man: Paul Kagame and his Rwandan Patriotic Front Party. Kagame was re-elected the president of the small, East African nation with 99% of the vote in 2017. Freedom House lists Rwanda as “Not Free”, with a score of only 23/100. The elections of Kagame and constitutional changes made in 2015 are largely behind such a low score. The president of Rwanda has sweeping authority over government appointees, and Kagame used this power to pressure the Rwandan parliament to pass an amendment concerning presidential term limits. Originally, the president was allowed to serve two seven-year terms, but this was changed to two five-year terms in 2015. However, a special exemption was made for Kagame who was granted permission to serve a second seven-year term, which ended in 2024, and then run for two more five-year terms. If there are no additional revisions, Kagame could potentially rule Rwanda until he is seventy-six years old and would see his control over the government last for forty years. The median age in Rwanda is only 19.4 years, which means the vast majority of its citizens will have grown up only knowing one president and living in a nation that emphasizes safety at the expense of personal freedoms.
The recent July 15 elections saw Kagame win once again with over 99% of the vote (the exact number was 99.15%), with voter turnout at a very impressive 98%. Sanny Rwego Ntayombya, writing for Al Jazeera emphasized that Kagame’s win, which appears to many in the West as mathematically impossible without some form of political manipulation, is actually a celebration of what the president has accomplished for the Rwandan people. Life expectancy has increased by nearly thirty years and the annual income has increased nearly tenfold. Contrasting this cheerful depiction of life in Rwanda under Kagame is Victoire Ingabire Umuhoza, an opposition opponent who was sentenced to eight years in prison by the Kagame government for “conspiring against the government” before being released in 2018. Under Rwanda law, former convicts are not allowed to enter the political arena. Umuhoza published an article in The Guardian on July 18th that described the latest Kagame victory as an event that “only underscores the country’s lack of democracy”. She referenced the arrest of another critical voice of the Rwandan Patriotic Front, Bernard Ntaganda, who was arrested in 2010 and was not allowed to participate in any elections. Rwanda has undoubtedly seen significant growth and development but has also significantly restricted debate and discussion about the government, which undermines liberty and erodes democracy. The economy of Rwanda continues to grow at a steady and impressive pace of over seven percent for more than a decade, but Umuhoza included the fact that nearly 50% of the population lives on just over two dollars a day. Rwanda is a complex nation that has demonstrated remarkable resolve after the nightmarish violence of 1994, but it continues to struggle to find a balance between constancy and liberty.
Controversial and Upcoming Elections
Africa has a multitude of elections still to come in 2024, including critical presidential elections in Algeria, Tunisia, Namibia, Ghana, and South Sudan. The broader question is how much attention these events will receive and will there be adequate condemnation of any political abuses. For example, the recent elections in Chad ended with the deaths of nine people and the wounding of at least sixty others following the announcement that interim president Mahamat Idriss Deby had won the presidency with 61% of the vote. Yet, prior to any declaration of a victor, Deby’s primary opponent, prime minister Succes Masra announced that he had won, and the contrary results were due to votes being stolen. Masra’s version of a “stop the steal” campaign, heard loudly following the defeat of Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential election of 2020, only adds to the perilous instability faced by many Chadians. In addition to contested elections and violence, other African countries have seen elections postponed or canceled, including in Burkina Faso where the election process was considered “not a priority” by junta leader Captain Ibrahim Traoré in September 2023. Even Senegal, described as one of the most stable democracies in Africa despite a freedom score of 67 labeling itas “partly free”, saw elections canceled in February only to be held in March. The election of Bassirou Diomaye Faye helped Senegal avoid a significant crisis brought on by former president Macky Sall, who, while unable to run for a third term, declared that the presidential elections would be postponed due to infighting within the legislative and judicial branches of the government. Senegal demonstrates how democratic beliefs can exist within a sea of potential chaos, and Faye, an opposition leader against Sall’s government, peacefully acquired power. The hope is that Senegal acts as a model for other countries who find themselves on the precipice of constitutional crises.
With its rich history, extraordinary natural resources, and growing population, the continent of Africa could come to exercise more influence upon the world than ever before; however, the lack of personal liberties and the ability to allow citizens to express dissenting opinions without fear of retribution is essential if the nations of the continent will materialize as substantial global influencers. Creating a democratic society is extraordinarily difficult, but maintaining such a system is a far greater challenge. The future of Africa depends on how countries conduct elections, transfer power, and give agency to their citizens.
Glossary
Atrocity- An extremely wicked act, typically one involving physical violence or injury.
Blasphemy- An offense that insult a religious belief or God.
Colonialism- Policy or practice of acquiring full or partial political control over another country.
Contention- A heated, angry, disagreement.
Coup- A sudden, violent, and unlawful seizure of power from a government.
Defamation- The communication of false statements.
Dissention- Partisan and angered arguing.
Executive Branch-A separate head or leader of a government
Genocide- An internationally recognized crime where acts are committed with the intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnic, racial, or religious group.
Judicial Branch- The branch of government responsible for interpreting laws and administering justice.
Junta- A military or political group that rules after taking control of a government by force.
Legislative Branch- The members of a government that pass laws.
Partisan- A firm adherent to a party, faction, cause, or person.
Populace- The people living in a particular country or area.
Repression- The action of subduing someone or something by force.
Retribution- Punishment forced upon someone as revenge for a wrong or criminal act.
Stalwart- Loyal and dependable supporter.
Subjugation- The action of bringing someone or something under domination or control.
Unabated- Without losing any force.